【经济学人精读】大小谎言：努力找工作的拜登老头说谎了吗？

　　【经济学人精读】大小谎言：努力找工作的拜登老头说谎了吗？

　　原文译文

　　注：本文选自10月31日《经济学人》

　　Big little lies

　　大小谎言

　　The story of Hunter Biden and the diminishing returns to disinformation

　　亨特·拜登的故事和虚假信息带来的益处减少

　　To work, dumps of hacked email need a juicy target and credulous institutions. This one had neither

　　要想发挥作用，黑客攻击需要找一个更大的目标，还需要一个轻信的机构。而这一次，这两样东西都没法找到。

　　1. DONALD TRUMP’S rally in Martinsburg—his third of the day in Pennsylvania—felt less like a political gathering than a greatest-hits concert of an ageing rocker. Vendors selling T-shirts, buttons and banners lined the streets leading to the airstrip. The talent trotted out all the golden oldies: “Crooked Hillary”, “They’ll confiscate your guns”, “Mexico is paying for the wall”, and abundant derision of a rival band (“Joe Biden and the Democrat socialists”).

　　唐纳德·特朗普在马丁斯堡的集会是他在宾夕法尼亚州的第三天，这次机会给人的感觉不是一个政治集会，倒像是一个老年摇滚歌手的演唱会。在通往机场的街道上，小贩们沿街叫卖t恤、纽扣和横幅。这位才华横溢的天才嘴里蹦出了之前所有的金曲老歌：“狡诈的希拉里”，“他们会没收你们的枪，”“墨西哥会出钱修墙”，他还大肆嘲讽对手，称他们为“拜登和民主党社会主义者。”

　　2. As at many such events, the crowd liked his old stuff better than the new. The mention of Mrs Clinton prompted “Lock her up” chants from the crowd. They booed dutifully when Mr Trump mentioned his latest target, Hunter Biden, his rival’s troubled son. But allegations concerning the younger Mr Biden seem not to have shifted the race in Mr Trump’s favour as those regarding Mrs Clinton did four years ago. The target is less enticing, and American institutions more prepared.

　　和以往很多活动一样，人们喜欢更喜欢他那些老生常谈。一提到希拉里，人群中就响起”把她关起来”的呼声。当特朗普提到他的最新目标亨特·拜登时，这些人就尽职尽责地发出嘘声。拜登是特朗普对手乔治·拜登的儿子，现在正身陷各种麻烦当中。但是，和四年前对希拉里的指控不一样的是，对小拜登的指控并没有将局势扭转过来。毕竟，特朗普这个新目标并不那么诱人，而且美国各机构对此也是早有准备了。

　　3. It helps that the allegations concern not the candidate himself, but his son. Rudy Giuliani, Mr Trump’s personal lawyer, gave a cache of emails to the New York Post, a tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch. They seem to show Hunter exploring a Chinese investment deal in 2017 that included a 10% equity stake “held by H for the Big Guy”. One of Hunter’s former business partners, Tony Bobulinski, stated that “the Big Guy” was the elder Mr Biden, who was aware of his son’s activities.

　　其中有利的一点是，这些指控涉及的不是拜登本人，而是他的儿子。特朗普的私人律师鲁迪•朱利安尼将一批电子邮件交给了鲁珀特•默多克旗下的《纽约邮报》。它们似乎显示，亨特在2017年参与了一项中国投资交易，其中提到由H代持的10%的股份是给“某个大人物”的。亨特的前商业伙伴托尼·博布林斯基表示，这个“大人物”就是老拜登，他知道儿子的活动。

　　4. Another email purports to show Hunter arranging a meeting between his father and an executive at Burisma, a Ukrainian energy firm that paid Hunter a lot of money to occupy a seat on its board. Both Mr Biden’s campaign and Hunter’s lawyer say no such meeting ever happened. Mr Trump’s camp has alleged that as vice-president Mr Biden perverted American foreign policy to benefit his son and Burisma. The opposite appears true: Mr Biden pushed Ukraine to remove a corrupt prosecutor who had scuppered an investigation into Burisma. Mr Biden’s 22 years of tax returns show nothing fishy. He has called the allegations “garbage”, but neither he nor Hunter have denied that the emails were genuine.

　　另一封邮件显示，亨特安排他父亲和乌克兰能源公司Burisma的一名高管会面。Burisma向亨特支付了一大笔钱，让亨特在该公司董事会占据一个席位。拜登的竞选团队和亨特的律师都表示，从来就没有这种会面。特朗普阵营声称，拜登在担任副总统期间歪曲美国外交政策以帮助他儿子亨特和Burisma获利。事实恰恰相反：拜登敦促乌克兰撤换一名调查Burisma的腐败检察官。拜登22年的纳税申报单没有任何可疑之处。他称这些指控是“垃圾”，但他和亨特都没有否认这些邮件的真实性。